This sounds more like news than a theory cooked up by unscrupulous deceitful investigators. I think you should try some impartiality when approaching this ambiguous situation. None of us really have any idea of what did, or may have, happened. All we have are theories.
But you are ignoring that the same Metodo 3 claimed they would have maddy home by Christmas and knew where she was.
At what point do we start to distrust what these guys are saying?
Also consider how convient it is to have a "similar" abduction in the area, maybe too convient? Possibly staged to have similarities?
These days, there is no limit what you can do with a lot of money behind you.